Territoire et économie

This work provides a long-term study of housing development in the Brest region (France). Its main objective
is to test the efficiency of the French laws and of urban planning bylaws to control housing development in the
coastal zone. Based on the yearly status of available plots, a panel longitudinal analysis (1968–2009) is developed. It combines survival analyses with spatial-temporal diffusion indices, to assess their joint effects on the
urban form evolution considering accessibility, proximity, spatial contiguity, temporal continuity, edge waves
versus leapfrog growth, etc. That allows testing hypotheses about the diffusion processes, and the achievement of
sustainable urbanism to increase density, promote adjacency and avoid urban sprawl and its detrimental effects
on the environment and climate. The main finding is that national laws need land planning to deploy locally and
that municipalities and stakeholders still prefer economic development over environmental conservation. That is
putting emphasis on a restricted (short term) view of sustainable development.

Keywords: Survival analysis, Spatial-temporal modelling, Housing development, Laws and bylaws, France, Coastal zone